What Trump promised, and what happened

Promises against the record

Kept means done as promised. Partly kept means done in a smaller or temporary form. Broken means not done, or the outcome moved the other way. In progress means underway with no final result. Reversed or blocked means done, then undone or stopped by courts.

The pattern

• Kept promises cluster where Trump controlled the lever: his own executive orders, or a Republican Congress.
• Broken promises cluster where results depended on markets, courts or other countries.
• “Partly kept” is mostly tax pledges that became capped, temporary deductions.
• For comparison, PolitiFact’s own tracker (75 promises, Feb 2026) had about 19% kept, 45% in the works and 31% stalled. Poynter

Israel-related actions and actions at home

These figures aren’t like-for-like. Some are yearly, some cover 10 years, some are one-time. Grants, arms sales, tax cuts and war costs are different kinds of money, and some categories overlap.

Aid to Israel, per year ($3.8B)0.05%

Iran war to date, Pentagon estimate ($47.1B, one-time)0.6%

Medicaid reduction, yearly average ($91B)1.2%

Tax law’s added deficits, yearly average ($340B)4.6%

Simple arithmetic against total outlays. The tax law returns money to taxpayers, aid and war are spending, and the Medicaid figure is a cut from projected spending, so these are different kinds of money. The Iran war equals about 12 years of the yearly aid.

Reading the numbers fairly

• Arms “approvals” are mostly purchases, not new grants. Israel buys largely with its yearly US grant, so the $12B and $8.6B are probably not on top of the $3.3B. That’s an inference from the aid agreement’s structure, not an official accounting. CRS
• Biden and Trump overlap. Brown University’s Costs of War project counts at least $21.7B in US military aid to Israel from Oct 2023 to Sept 2025, across both administrations, plus $9.65–12.07B for regional operations. Costs of War
• Was the Iran war “for Israel”? The administration cites US aims: no Iranian bomb, protecting US forces, keeping the Strait of Hormuz open. Critics point to Rubio’s Mar 2, 2026 remark, later walked back, that the US struck because it knew Israel would, and to reports that Pentagon officials had no intelligence Iran planned to strike US forces first. Al Jazeera Al-Monitor
• Where aid is heading. Both governments say the next aid agreement (talks opened Jun 2026) should phase out direct grants over about 10 years. JNS

What supporters and critics argue

Related actions at home

The administration presents its campus antisemitism enforcement as protecting Jewish students. Columbia paid $221M to restore federal funding. About $2.2–2.7B in Harvard grants was frozen; a court ruled the freeze unconstitutional, and the appeal is pending. Several pro-Palestinian noncitizen activists faced deportation cases. NPR/Ideastream Harvard Crimson

Where public opinion moved

• Gallup, Feb 2026: Americans’ sympathies favored Palestinians over Israelis 41% to 36%, a first in Gallup’s trend. Republicans still favor Israelis about 70% to 13%. AP via KSAT
• Pew, Mar 2026: 60% of adults view Israel unfavorably, including 57% of Republicans under 50. Pew
• AIPAC and Trump-aligned groups helped defeat Rep. Thomas Massie in a record $32.6M House primary in May 2026. Middle East Eye

Other foreign spending, for context

• Ukraine aid: $220M in FY2026, 99% below its peak. Military.com
• Argentina: a $20B swap line; $2.5B was drawn and repaid (Treasury’s account). Fortune
• Defense: a $1.5T request for FY2027, up 42%. NPR

The 2026 midterms, as of November 4

“Called” and “projected” both mean a decision desk has declared a winner. Nothing is certified, and the House count is still moving.

Senate seats that flipped

• Still open: Alaska (Sullivan vs. Peltola; ranked-choice counting could take weeks) and Mississippi (Colom led Hyde-Smith by 28–43 votes overnight; no automatic recount). Louisiana and Montana were listed as competitive, but no result was found. NBC
• Democratic holds: Georgia, Michigan, New Hampshire, Minnesota, Virginia. Republican holds: Florida, Nebraska, Wyoming.
• Governors: Democrats flipped Texas, Georgia, Ohio and Iowa, plus Nevada per NBC (not yet called by CBS). Republicans held Florida.
• Speaker Johnson won’t seek another term as GOP leader; Hakeem Jeffries is in line to become Speaker. ABC

The warning signs were there

• Trump’s approval fell to a second-term low of 37% in October; the generic ballot was Democrats 51%, Republicans 43%. Ballotpedia
• Democrats ran about 10–13 points ahead of their 2024 margins in special elections. MultiState
• Nov 2025: Spanberger won Virginia’s governorship by 15 points, Sherrill won New Jersey by about 13, and California’s Prop 50 passed with 64%. Wikipedia Wikipedia

Why Republicans lost, ranked

Ranked by exit-poll weight and by how often analysts on both sides cited each factor. The top four overlap: the Iran war drove fuel prices, which added to worries about tariffs and prices.

1. Cost of living

   The economy was the top issue (39%). About 8 in 10 voters reported inflation hardship; 62% held Trump responsible for prices; 44% said they were worse off, 18% better off. Strong evidence NBC exit poll AP Voter Poll

2. Trump’s unpopularity

   38% approval in exit polls, the lowest for a president on a midterm Election Day in nearly two decades. 43% said opposing Trump was a reason for their vote. Strong evidence NBC exit poll

3. The Iran war and gas prices

   Gas went from $2.98 before the war to a peak around $4.56 in May, and was about $4.20 in late October. 63% called the war the wrong decision. Trump said the war “was a piece of it.” Fewer voters rated the war “crucial” than rated prices or corruption. Strong to moderate AAA The Hill

4. Tariffs

   About 2 in 3 voters said tariffs hurt the economy; in Maine, 69% said they hurt the local economy. Moderate to strong CBS

5. Corruption and the state of democracy

   Democracy was the #2 issue (32%). 90% called corruption a crucial or major factor. Moderate to strong AP Voter Poll

6. Immigration enforcement and the Latino swing

   57% said enforcement had gone too far. Latino voters backed Democrats 62–35 for the House, vs. 51–46 for Harris in 2024. Immigration was still Republicans’ only issue advantage. Moderate NBC exit poll

7. Candidate quality

   Paxton lost Texas by 12. A White House official said “candidate quality matters.” The WSJ editorial board said Trump was directly responsible for at least three Senate losses. Moderate CBS HuffPost on WSJ

8. Health costs and the ACA subsidy lapse

   85% were concerned about health costs; about 1 in 10 named health care as their top issue. KFF found more than half blamed Republicans and Trump for premium increases. Moderate KFF via InsuranceNewsNet

9. An enthusiasm gap

   Democrats were overwhelmingly motivated by opposition; most non-MAGA Republicans said Trump wasn’t a factor in their vote. Moderate CBS

10. Redistricting, which mostly backfired

    Mid-decade maps gave Republicans about a 9-seat edge on paper, but at least three GOP-drawn Florida seats and TX-15 went Democratic. Weak (no full analysis yet) WVTM13 Northeastern

Not measured: shutdowns, Medicaid cuts, DOGE, the Epstein files, Jan. 6 pardons, Venezuela and Israel/Gaza may have mattered, but exit polls didn’t ask about them separately.

Who blames what

• Conservative outlets and strategists: mostly Trump himself. The WSJ editorial board called him “the main architect of this rout”; a senior GOP strategist blamed “one person.” Others cited the war, gas prices and weak candidates. HuffPost on WSJ Fox News
• Trump and the White House: candidate flaws, Trump not being on the ballot, and Fox News; Trump allowed the war “was a piece of it.” The Hill
• Neutral analysts: high prices, the Iran war and corruption (AP); tariffs, immigration enforcement and primary picks (Northeastern). PBS/AP Northeastern

What changes now

With a Democratic Congress, pledges that need legislation look stalled: the $5,000 checks (which Trump tied to a Republican majority), abolishing the Education Department, and making the “Department of War” name official. Enforcement, the remaining tariffs and military action stay in Trump’s hands. The next Israel aid agreement (the current one runs through FY2028) will go through that Congress too.

Read with caution

This page was compiled the day after the election from public reporting. These items are flagged or left out.

Left out because they were too thinly sourced

• How the South Carolina Senate seat opened. Reports of Sen. Lindsey Graham’s death and his sister’s nomination rested on copies of one local TV story. The result itself comes from Decision Desk HQ.
• A $13.1B interceptor-replacement figure attributed to CBO, which appeared only in Press TV (Iranian state media) and one blog.
• Iran-war cost estimates of $135B+ from advocacy trackers, and a reported $80–100B internal Pentagon estimate.
• A reported $1B fee for a permanent Board of Peace seat, and a “200 US troops” figure for Gaza.

Included, but treat as softer

• AP’s House call is unconfirmed, and reports conflict.
• Nevada’s governor race: NBC lists a Democratic flip; CBS hadn’t called it.
• Fed rate moves come from broker write-ups, not the Federal Reserve.
• Wall Street Journal quotes are via HuffPost’s coverage of the editorial.
• The $4.56 gas peak and the $3,752 average tax cut are secondhand figures.
• US deaths in the Iran war range from 18 to 23 depending on the date of the count.
• Rubio’s $12B arms figure is an administration claim; the settler-sanctions item comes from an advocacy outlet.
• No election-night data was found for independents, young voters or suburban voters.